When Does The Price Of Propane Go Down?

Fall officially begins this week, and despite the uncharacteristically mild weather we’ve had in the Hudson Valley in recent weeks, there’s no disputing that crisp days and nights are on the way in the not-too-distant future.

That makes now, in late September and early October, an excellent time to schedule your next propane supply, among other things.

Why? There are four major causes for this:

  • There is a lack of demand. Propane prices rise in response to increased demand, which is strongest when temperatures drop. Propane prices might also rise during the summer months, when people pack up their campers and RVs for a vacation or camping trip. Early fall is a “shoulder season” between these peak demand times, which means it’s frequently the greatest time to save money on propane tank refills.
  • The weather has been more consistent.
  • Sudden cold spells are prevalent in late autumn and early winter, but occur less frequently in the early fall.
  • It assists you in remaining prepared.
  • Extreme cold can quickly cause propane shortages, resulting in no-heat situations as people rush to fill their tanks. Cold weather can sometimes cause power outages, necessitating the use of propane to keep your family safe and warm. You’ll have piece of mind knowing that your family will be secure in any weather if you schedule your propane tank refill in the early fall.
  • You will have all of the conveniences of home.
  • You’ll be counting on gas to bring home comfort throughout the heating season, whether you’re firing up the propane grill for a game, lighting up your propane fireplace for a warm evening at home, or turning up the propane spa for a cold night bath. Fill your propane tank immediately to ensure that you’ll have comfort for months to come.

What is the propane price in your area?

The price of propane per gallon today does not compare favorably to the price of propane per gallon a year ago. The US EIA announced an average propane price per gallon today of $2.337 per gallon in last week’s Weekly Oil and Propane Prices bulletin. This is significantly more than the $2.20 per gallon propane price from last year.

What will the price of propane be in the future?

Forecasters make projections about the future of a given industry based on historical trends and present market conditions. Listed below are a few of the forecasted trends for 2022:

U.S. Propane Production and Exports

The propane business in the United States may encounter production and export issues in 2022. Supply difficulties will almost certainly be a concern.

The propane market saw historically low inventories in 2020 and 2021, affecting supply. In early 2022, the best projections predict that US gas plants will produce only 27 to 28 billion gallons of propane per year, or around 1.8 million barrels per day. For the same time period, US propane exports are expected to be 1.4 million barrels per day, nearly the whole amount produced.

Despite the decline in propane stocks, export quantities have remained high due to low domestic pricing. As a result, the stock has been depleted. That low stock, along with only moderate production increases, means the United States will have a limited propane supply for export. Exports in 2022 may not expand at the same rate as they have in the past.

Propane Inventories

Because of low domestic production levels and near-record import quantities, propane stockpiles are at an all-time low. According to projections, 2022 reserves will lag considerably further behind 2021 inventories until the middle of the year.

Propane inventories are expected to fall to around 30 million barrels in March 2022, then rise to 59 million barrels in June. This figure is expected to rise until September, when it will peak, before declining again, as is the industry’s annual trend.

Price of Propane

The domestic cost of propane has been outside of specific price peaks in recent years. Mont Belvieu propane prices plummeted to a low of $0.203 per gallon in early 2020. It has risen and dropped several times since then. Prices peaked at $1.491 per gallon in late 2021, then fell to around $1.123 in early 2022.

According to forecasts, propane prices might reach $2.57 per gallon by 2022. As a result, propane-heated families in the United States would likely face a 54 percent increase in their heating expenditures by 2022. In a really cold winter, they could spend up to 94 percent more, but in a mild winter, they could only spend 24 percent more.

Supply Chain Factors

A decline in natural gas and crude oil production is one potential supply chain problem for propane production and exports. Propane is produced as a byproduct of natural gas processing and, on rare occasions, crude oil refinement. The global demand for petroleum and natural gas has decreased as a result of the COVID-19 epidemic, which has resulted in travel limitations. The inevitable result is a reduction in propane output.

As employees quarantine because to the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, propane suppliers may see a reduction in their workforce. Reduced supply chain productivity may result in lower overall propane output.

Cold winter weather can also cause supply chain problems if demand is higher than projected and supplies are depleted.

Increasing Demand for Propane As a Clean Source of Heating and Cooking Fuel

As customers seek cleaner residential energy sources, demand for propane is expected to expand both domestically and abroad.

Demand for propane increased during the COVID-19 epidemic as people went into lockdown or started working from home. More time spent at home has often resulted in more cooking possibilities and a greater need to keep the house warm and pleasant. Propane appeals to these users as a clean, responsible, and high-quality fuel source.

Increasing Demand for Propane As an Automotive and Transportation Fuel

Through 2022, growing demand for propane will be driven by consumer demand for cleaner fuels.

In Asia-Pacific countries, demand for propane as an alternative automotive and transportation fuel is particularly considerable. Increased air pollution levels, particularly in China and India, have sparked a boom in interest in greener fuels. A thriving autogas market has emerged in China as a result of several municipal clean-air efforts pushing alternative fuels. As a result of this market, there are more prospects for propane imports from other countries.

Increasing Demand for Low-Emission Sustainable Fuels

The fact that propane emits very little carbon fuels a lot of interest in it as an automobile and transportation fuel. Propane is a considerably more environmentally friendly option than gasoline.

Because of propane’s lower emissions, many governments and school districts in the United States have begun to move to propane-powered cars. In West Virginia, propane-powered school buses cut carbon emissions by 13% and dangerous nitrous oxide (NOx) emissions by 95% to 96% when compared to diesel buses. There were 25,969 propane-fueled fleet vehicles on the road in 2017, including police cars, school buses, lorries, taxis, and shuttle buses.

The negative effects of diesel fumes on schoolchildren’s health have been established in research, demonstrating that propane is likewise safer from a health standpoint.

Fuel economy is one of the potential drawbacks of using propane autogas. Because a gallon of propane has less energy than a gallon of conventional gasoline, vehicles must consume more propane to attain the same mileage. However, the advantages of propane-powered cars frequently exceed the disadvantages.

Propane, for example, has an octane value of above 120, whereas gasoline has an octane rating of 84 to 93. Some propane car manufacturers tweak their engines to get the most out of the higher octane rating, which improves performance and efficiency. Propane cars have reduced carbon emissions and are more resistant to oil contamination, resulting in lower maintenance costs, less time spent on maintenance and repairs, and longer engine life.

Propane autogas is becoming increasingly popular around the world. Some governments encourage the use of propane-powered vehicles by providing tax breaks and incentives for low-emission automobiles.

What is the current propane per gallon pricing in Pennsylvania?

Residential propane prices in Pennsylvania are currently at 3.241, up from 3.225 last week and 2.55 a year ago.

How long would a hundred gallons of propane keep you warm?

We use a variety of home propane tank sizes for heating. The smallest of these tanks is a 100-gallon propane tank. We’ll investigate how long a 100-gallon propane tank can be used to heat a home.

At first glance, the math appears to be straightforward. The 100-gallon propane tank, for example, will last 50 40 days if we use 2 gallons of propane every day for heating. Because of the 80 percent tank rule, a 100 gallon propane tank does not contain 100 gallons of propane when fully charged; instead, it contains 80 gallons of propane when fully charged (safety measure).

In practice, though, we must consider our heating requirements. These are mostly determined by the size of our residence (square footage). As we’ll see later, 100-gallon propane will last anywhere from 11 to 85 days depending on home size and propane consumption in the United States (almost 3 months).

To figure out how long a 100-gallon propane tank will endure, we’ll need to know the following information:

  • The heating energy in one gallon of propane is 91,500 BTU.
  • A 100-gallon propane tank holds 80 gallons of propane when fully charged. This is a safety precaution; if a 100 gallon contained 100 gallons of propane, the pressure on the internal wall of the propane tank may become dangerously high at higher temperatures.
  • The heating energy in this 80 litres of propane is 7,320,000 BTU.

We can figure out how long a 100-gallon propane tank will survive in two ways:

We’ll demonstrate how to perform both calculations. You should use the first calculation if you know your heating demand (which can range from 10,000 to 200,000 BTU/h).

The second estimate, which is based on average propane consumption and house size, is a simpler way to figure out how long a 100-gallon tank will last.

Note: You may find out how long all propane tanks (from 1 pound to 2,000 gallon) last by visiting this page.

Let’s start with the theoretical calculation, then go on to the far more realistic second calculation (house size based):

What is the source of propane scarcity?

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES (NewsNation Now)

Due to the coronavirus epidemic, outside dining prohibitions have become a factor tied to propane cylinder shortages and a large increase in demand.

Is propane more cost-effective than electricity?

The clear winner here is mains gas; it is less expensive to heat your home with gas than with electricity, assuming you can get it from the mains.

LPG and heating oil come in second and third, respectively, with electricity and bottled gas coming in last. The Renewable Heat Incentive definitely skews these numbers, especially when it comes to heat pumps that run on electricity, but as you can see from the chart above, a well-insulated home is by far the most efficient.

We hope that this clarifies the prevalent fallacy that utilizing electric heaters is less expensive than using a gas boiler and radiators to heat your home.

Tank Size

You might potentially have a smaller tank in this situation because you’re using a different energy source to generate heat.

Because the size of the tank impacts how much propane you’ll need to buy when you refill, it has an impact on the price.

If you have a small tank, you will just be required to pay a little fee.

If you have a 100-gallon propane tank, though, filling it will cost you $200.

If your propane tank is too big for your home, you may be paying more than you need to.

If the tank is too tiny for your home, you may not be getting the best value for your money because you will have to refill your propane tank every few weeks.

Propane costs vary depending on the size of your tank and whether it’s the proper size for your home.

Energy-Efficiency Of The Home

If your home isn’t energy-efficient, you may be wasting money unnecessarily.

Checking for leaks, gaps, or other sections of your home that aren’t properly sealed is one of the most critical components of making your home energy-efficient.

These areas allow hot air from within your home to escape to the outside and cold air to enter.

Your house will be better at keeping the warm air inside and the cold air out if you seal the leaks and seal the house.

Carpeted homes are simpler to keep warm because the fibers store heat better, but homes with hard flooring, such as wood or stone, are cooler.

During the colder months, you can solve this problem by laying rugs on hard ground.

This will assist absorb part of the heat, allowing your home to stay warmer for longer.

Propane is costly when your home is inefficient in terms of energy efficiency because you wind up consuming more than you need.

Crude Oil And Natural Gas Prices

The price of crude oil and natural gas is one of the most important elements influencing propane prices.

Because propane is made from the processing of crude oil and natural gas, it’s only natural that its price is linked to theirs.

When the price of crude oil and natural gas is cheap, it usually suggests there is enough supply to meet demand.

If the price of crude oil and natural gas is low, then the price of propane will be low as well.

If crude oil and natural gas prices are high, propane prices will be high as well.

If there isn’t enough supply but a lot of demand, it’s safe to assume there won’t be enough propane supply.

If crude oil and natural gas manufacturing and processing costs are high, propane manufacturing and processing costs will be high as well.

If the price of crude oil or natural gas rises, anticipate the price of propane to rise as well.

Supply And Demand

Several factors can influence the amount of propane available for purchase.

Propane’s supply, like that of many other items, has peaks and valleys.

When there is a large supply of propane, it usually means that pricing will be low.

However, if there is insufficient supply to fulfill demand, the price will rise.

Companies will raise prices to reduce demand and make supply last longer.

Because crude oil and natural gas are fossil fuels, there is a limited supply on the planet.

There will be no more propane to manufacture if there is no more crude oil or natural gas.

For example, during the COVID-19 epidemic, numerous facilities were forced to close because to health concerns.

Seasonal Demands

Any propane user will tell you that the price of propane tends to rise throughout the winter months.

Because propane costs affect the country as a whole, if one region uses more propane than usual, other regions will feel the pinch as well.

Winters are harsh in the northeast and northern portions of the United States.

Temperatures frequently drop below freezing, and snowfall can be several feet deep.

Because the cold air from outside is attempting to get inside, the furnace must work harder to keep the house warm.

When the northeastern United States endures a deep frost, a large number of people use more propane than usual to heat their houses.

Because they’re using more, there’s less propane available for everyone else.

As a result, they have no way of knowing how much propane homeowners will consume to stay warm.

The amount of production at oil refineries and natural gas facilities is also affected by the season.

When this happens, propane is in short supply at particular times of the year.

Propane is more expensive during particular times of the year due to supply and demand fluctuations.

Supply Proximity

If you reside far away from either of those states, your propane costs will be higher than for individuals who live locally.

The further away a target place is from a refinery, the greater the chance that anything may go wrong.

Suppliers will invest substantially in their storage tanks and the quality of their drivers to assist mitigate this danger.

These expenses are incurred as part of their operations, and they are compensated for them through the selling of their services.

Your propane pricing is also affected by the distance between you and a propane supplier.

Even if you live in Kansas or Texas, your supplier may be a long way away.

You’ll still be responsible for a portion of the expense of transferring propane from their storage tanks to your property.

You should expect a portion of your overall propane service cost to be made up of fuel pricing, driver compensation, and tank investments.

The longer it takes them to get to you, the more fuel they’ll require, and the higher the cost will be.

This is not the case for those who live in Texas or Kansas, or with their provider.

There are fewer expenses incurred throughout the transportation process because there are fewer miles to cross.

Propane costs vary based on your distance from refineries and suppliers.

Propane Exports

As a result, if something happens in one of the other nations to which it ships, supply may be affected.

For instance, if Europe is experiencing an energy shortage or an unusually cold winter, it may need to import more propane from the United States.

Since a result, the supply of propane in the United States will be reduced, as more propane was diverted to Europe.

If the United States has a very cold winter, the supply may be further depleted since those places affected by the cold may use more propane.

When demand for crude oil and natural gas rises, so does demand for propane.

If there isn’t enough demand for propane, suppliers will have a surplus supply, which will lower costs.

However, if other countries do not require natural gas or crude oil, production could be limited.

When demand for propane rises, there may not be enough supply to fulfill it, causing prices to climb.

Because the United States exports propane, natural gas, and oil, global events can have an impact on the amount of propane accessible.

If there isn’t a lot of propane available, the cost of propane at home will rise.

Leasing Fees On Tanks

If you lease a tank, you must pay a monthly charge regardless of whether you get propane replenished that month or not.

That’s because you’re paying for the opportunity to store propane that you don’t use or only use infrequently.

The advantage of leasing a tank is that you don’t have to buy new one if it starts to deteriorate.

If you already own the tank, you’ll have to spend another $2,500 to $3,000 to replace it.

Propane is expensive since you usually have to pay a monthly lease charge or a high price to buy and install one.

Type Of Propane

The majority of individuals claim they need their propane replenished, but they may be unaware that there are several distinct types of propane.

Although they all perform the same basic job, one is slightly cleaner and more efficient than the other.

Commercial propane is comparable to HD10 but is used for other purposes and would never be used in an engine.

HD5 propane is the most expensive because it is composed of 90% propane and 5% propylene.

Because it can cause engines to stick, this form of propane isn’t typically used in engines.

More Environmentally-Friendly

The fact that propane is touted as being better for the environment is another reason for its high cost.

While the process of refining propane, which is made from oil and natural gas, is not environmentally friendly, it burns cleaner than other fossil fuels.

As a result, some homeowners prefer propane over other fossil fuels since it is a somewhat superior alternative.

They understand that people are willing to spend a little more to help the environment.

What is the capacity of a 250 gallon propane tank?

Supplemental heating or two home appliances, such as water heaters, generators, and pool heaters, can be powered by a 250 gallon propane tank. When a 250 gallon propane tank is full, it carries 200 gallons of propane.